By I. Laine, O. Lehto, T. Sorvali

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Figure 12 is the cumulative distribution function for the percent of allotted resources required to ship Pu-238 TRU waste to the WIPP for an optimistic NRC. Based on the analyses, there is little probability (essentially zero) that the shipping resources allotted by The National TRU Waste Management Plan will be sufficient and a high probability that as much as a thousand-fold increase in shipping resources will be needed. It is much more likely that repackaging even under the best circumstances will produce more volume than can be shipped to the WIPP under current baseline planning assumptions (DOE, 1997).

The expected values (Table 13) demonstrate, with the exception of Path 1 and an “optimistic” NRC, modest differences in the number of shipments offered by the five strategies. , little change in respective shipment numbers for three states of NRC approval). 12/31/98 Pu-238DmisionAnalyskReport 43 TABLE 13. 208 I I I 389 I 325 I 428 357 5 20 2,656 3,466 465 384 5 21 2,882 3,758 465 465 364 385 5 5 19 22 2,793 2,884 3,645 3,760 397 332 5 19 2,517 3,270 44 Of greater import are the implications to shipping resources allotted by The National TRU Waste Management Plan (DOE, 1997).

25. ~GURE 3. E4 Hydrogen Getter Reaction Rate in Drums (moles/gram see) After the panel on technical uncertainty developed the cumulative probability distribution for hydrogen getter reaction rate, a panel of three experts on the NRC approval process discussed the probability of NRC approval for Path 1. In general, the panel was pessimistic about NRC approval for Path 1 (Table 5). All panel members were polled, and the most optimistic response given was a 50 percent chance of approval. The least optimistic response given was a 10 percent probability of approval.